Why You Can't Find TMX Elmo in Stores

Update - 11/15...

I've been keeping an eye on TMX Elmo auctions and it looks like the prices have leveled off and even dropped a bit. May be a good time to bid on a TMX Elmo on eBay. You might get lucky.


Original Posting...

Halloween hasn't even passed yet, but the TMX Elmo has already been set up as the "must have" toy of this holiday shopping season. If you have young children, you've probably already been worn down by your little ones begging for this 'ultimate' toy. If not, you can expect it to happen soon as the holidays draw closer.

But if you've been to toy stores looking for TMX Elmo, you've probably left empty-handed and disappointed. The shelves are bare, and you can't even order them online (unless you are willing to pay the extortionists on eBay many times the retail price).

It doesn't seem to make sense does it? If toy stores know that TMX Elmo is going to sell like crazy, wouldn't they want to keep the shelves stocked so they could sell as many as possible?

Nope.

The truth is they don't want too many people buying Elmo, at least not yet.

Let me explain...

Robert Cialdini, Professor of Psychology at Arizona State University, used an example quite similar to the TMX Elmo to explain his principle of Commitment and Consistency. In his classic book on persuasion and marketing, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Cialdini explains how toy stores trick you into spending more each holiday season.

(It's not a new technique by the way. Think about past holiday frenzies over PlayStation 2 game consoles, Cabbage Patch Kids, and the original Tickle-Me Elmo.)

I can't discuss every nuance of Cialdini's principles here, but I'll give you a summary to make my point. (If you want to read more, I highly recommend Cialdini's book. It's a fascinating read and you can get it on Amazon for about ten bucks.)

1. Toy sales have traditionally sagged in January and February. Parents who just spent a small fortune on Christmas presents are not in the mood to spend more right after the holidays. Looking to avoid this post-holiday drop in sales, toy stores discovered the following persuasion technique that works perfectly time and again.

2. Toy stores advertise 'the toy that every kid must have' knowing that kids will beg and badger their parents until they agree to buy one as a Christmas present.

3. The stores then deliberately understock the item. They stock just enough to create a mini-frenzy and to build anticipation and whet appetites.

4. Now they have you in the store and the toy you came for is out of stock. You ask when they'll get more but you're told that demand is too high and they don't know if they'll have more in time for Christmas.

But you certainly can't let your kids down. After all, you made them a promise (the Commitment) and you will feel compelled to follow through with that promise (Consistency) to avoid disappointing your kids.

5. Since you can't get TMX Elmo, you do the next best thing. You buy a bunch of other stuff for your kids instead.

Did you catch that? This is where the toy stores get you. Let me repeat it..."You buy a bunch of other stuff for your kids instead."

Do you see the subtle beauty of the store's influence? By deliberately understocking the shelves, they forced you into buying other items (that you probably wouldn't have bought otherwise). They do this because they know...

6. After the holidays, when your kids are disappointed that they didn't get the new TMX Elmo, the shelves are suddenly full of them. New commercials start running to build up demand again.

Based on Cialdini's principle, you made a Commitment to your child, and in order to maintain Consistency you feel compelled to follow through on that promise. So off you march to the store to buy the TMX Elmo. Better late than never.

Your kids are happy because they got the toy they wanted. And the store is happy because they persuaded you to not just buy the TMX Elmo, but a bunch of other toys as well.

You have to hand it to the toy stores and their marketing teams. It's a brilliant method of persuasion because of its power and because it is so subtle that few people would ever figure it out.